Replacing GDP by 2030

Towards a Common Language for the Well-being and Sustainability Community

Replacing GDP by 2030

Proposes an new strategy for the beyond-GDP community which aims to replace the economic paradigm centred on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2030.

Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reform in Russia

Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reform in Russia

Putting the pension system on a sustainable footing arguably remains the biggest challenge in Russia's economic policies. The debate about the policy options was hitherto constrained by the absence of general equilibrium analysis. This paper fills this gap by simulating their macroeconomic effects in a DSGE model calibrated to Russia's economy-the first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. The results suggest that a minimum benefit level in the public system should optimally be financed through lower government consumption, while higher taxation of labor and capital should be avoided. Reducing public investment spending is superior to increasing consumption taxes unless investment generates high rates of return.

Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe

Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe

This paper explores the global impact of population aging, using a calibrated overlapping generations model of eight world regions to simulate the effects of historical and projected demographic trends on international capital flows. The simulations show that there will be a turning point in regional savings – investment balances between 2010 and 2030 when the European Union and North America will experience a substantial decline in savings relative to investment as their populations age rapidly. This shift will be financed by capital flows from less developed regions which are projected to become capital exporters.

Gabon

First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of a Performance Criterion: Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Gabon

Gabon

Gabon showed robust economic growth, low inflation, and large fiscal savings from high oil revenue, underpinned by prudent macroeconomic policies and structural reforms under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Executive Directors suggested that stronger fiscal discipline is essential to keep the economy stable. They stressed the need for strengthening public financial management and adjusting fiscal programs to accommodate higher-than-programmed fuel subsidies. They advised that enhancing the investment climate by strengthening governance and increasing transparency, as well as by lifting the temporary price controls, will remove constraints to the growth of non-oil activity.

Pension Reforms in Japan

Pension Reforms in Japan

This paper analyzes various reform options for Japan’s public pension in light of large fiscal consolidation needs of the country. The most attractive option is to increase the pension eligibility age in line with high and rising life expectancy. This would have a positive effect on long-run economic growth and would be relatively fair in sharing the burden of fiscal adjustment between younger and older generations. Other attractive options include better targeting by “clawing back” a small portion of pension benefits from wealthy retirees, reducing preferential tax treatment of pension benefit incomes, and collecting contributions from dependent spouses of employees, who are currently eligible for pension benefits even though they make no contributions. These options, if implemented concurrently, could reduce the government annual subsidy and the government deficit by up to 1¼ percent of GDP by 2020.

Development Centre Studies Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, 960-2030 AD, Second Edition, Revised and Updated

Development Centre Studies Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, 960-2030 AD, Second Edition, Revised and Updated

This book uses a comparative approach to explain why China’s role in the world economy has changed so dramatically in the last thousand years. This edition has been revised and updated and Chapter 4 is new. It concludes that China will resume its role as the world's largest economy by 2015.

Kingdom of the Netherlands-Aruba

Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

Kingdom of the Netherlands-Aruba

This Selected Issues paper analyzes sustaining potential growth in Aruba. As in the other Caribbean countries, there are growing concerns in Aruba about the slowdown in economic growth over the past two decades and the consequent tepid outlook for potential growth. Tackling such concerns requires identifying the underlying factors. This paper presents an overview of Aruba’s economic growth performance since 1990, analyzes factors behind the slowdown, and discusses how potential growth can be sustained. It suggests that Aruba should aim to finance its renewable energy and other future growth initiatives sustainably.

The State of Public Finances

A Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor

The State of Public Finances


Italy

2005 Article IV Consultation - Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Italy

Italy

Annotation In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.