In The Long Run We're All Dead: The Canadian Turn to Fiscal Restraint offers the first comprehensive scholarly account of this vital public policy issue. Lewis deftly analyzes the history of deficit finance from before Confederation through Canada's postwar Keynesianism to the retrenchment of the Mulroney and Chr�tien years. In doing so, he illuminates how the political conditions for Ottawa's deficit elimination in the 1990s materialized after over 20 consecutive years in the red, and how the decline of Canadian Keynesianism has made way for the emergence of politics organized around balanced budgets.
Recent tests using long data series find evidence in favor of long-run PPP (by rejecting either the null hypothesis of unit roots in real exchange rates or the null of no cointegration between nominal exchange rates and relative prices.) These tests may have reached the wrong conclusion. Monte Carlo experiments using artificial data calibrated to nominal exchange rates and disaggregated data on prices show that tests of long-run PPP have serious size biases. They may fail to detect a sizable and economically significant unit root component. For example, in the baseline case which is calibrated to actual price data, unit roots and cointegration tests with a nominal size of five percent have true sizes that range from .90 to .98 in artificial 100-year long data series, even though the unit root component accounts for 42% of the variance of the real exchange rate in sample. On the other hand, tests of stationarity are shown to have very low power in the same circumstances, so it is quite likely that a researcher would reject a unit root and fail to reject stationarity even when the series embodied a large unit root component.
A groundbreaking debunking of moderate attempts to resolve financial crises In the ruins of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, self-proclaimed progressives the world over clamored to resurrect the economic theory of John Maynard Keynes. The crisis seemed to expose the disaster of small-state, free-market liberalization and deregulation. Keynesian political economy, in contrast, could put the state back at the heart of the economy and arm it with the knowledge needed to rescue us. But what it was supposed to rescue us from was not so clear. Was it the end of capitalism or the end of the world? For Keynesianism, the answer is both. Keynesians are not and never have been out to save capitalism, but rather to save civilization from itself. It is political economy, they promise, for the world in which we actually live: a world in which prices are "sticky," information is "asymmetrical," and uncertainty inescapable. In this world, things will definitely not take care of themselves in the long run. Poverty is ineradicable, markets fail, and revolutions lead to tyranny. Keynesianism is thus modern liberalism's most persuasive internal critique, meeting two centuries of crisis with a proposal for capital without capitalism and revolution without revolutionaries. If our current crises have renewed Keynesianism for so many, it is less because the present is worth saving, than because the future seems out of control. In that situation, Keynesianism is a perfect fit: a faith for the faithless.
This book brings together the joint work of Drew Fudenberg and David Levine (through 2008) on the closely connected topics of repeated games and reputation effects, along with related papers on more general issues in game theory and dynamic games. The unified presentation highlights the recurring themes of their work.
In the face of loneliness and brutality, a group of boys in the Mount Kildare Orphanage, located in the small city of St. John's, Newfoundland, bands together to look out for one another and secretly train for the city's marathon. A first novel.
"What does a gang-related murder in the 14th century have to do with a missed job opportunity in the early80s, or an intense panic attack by the side of theA303inFebruary 2003, or a spontaneous decision in the midst of a failing relationship? Well these are all occurrences that tosome degree led toDave Urwin lining up at the start of theCaesar's Camp 100 Mile Endurance Run in October 2013. In'Everything Will Work Out in the Long Run' these events and many more are elaborated on, telling the story of how Davelooked for a way to cope with a world that made little sense to himfrom a very young age. Thisled himdown the slippery slopeof drug and alcohol dependency and to a point of total burn-out, the overcoming of which and the desperation not to return to would characterise everything he did for years afterwards.He never knew if he was running away from something or running towards something, but it was through running that he gradually began to piece back together the person he truly was. Running led him to some awe-inspiring places, and to meet some amazing characters butmost importantly of all, it ultimatelyled him to discover what truly allowed him to believe that everything will work out in the long run."
The stock-investing classic--UPDATED TO HELP YOU WIN IN TODAY'S CHAOTIC GLOBAL ECONOMY Much has changed since the last edition of Stocks for the Long Run. The financial crisis, the deepest bear market since the Great Depression, and the continued growth of the emerging markets are just some of the contingencies directly affecting every portfolio inthe world. To help you navigate markets and make the best investment decisions, Jeremy Siegel has updated his bestselling guide to stock market investing. This new edition of Stocks for the Long Run answers all the important questions of today: How did the crisis alter the financial markets and the future of stock returns? What are the sources of long-term economic growth? How does the Fed really impact investing decisions? Should you hedge against currency instability? Stocks for the Long Run, Fifth Edition, includes brand-new coverage of: THE FINANCIAL CRISIS Siegel provides an expert’s analysis of the most important factors behind the crisis; the state of current stability/instability of the financial system and where the stock market fits in; and the viability of value investing as a long-term strategy. CHINA AND INDIA The economies of these nations are more than one-third larger than they were before the 2008 financial crisis; you'll get the information you need to earn long-termprofits in this new environment. GLOBAL MARKETS Learn all there is to know about the nature, size, and role of diversification in today’s global economy; Siegel extends his projections of the global economy until the end of this century. MARKET VALUATION Can stocks still provide 6 to 7 percent per year after inflation? This edition forecasts future stock returns and shows how to determine whether the market is overvalued or not. Essential reading for every investor and advisor who wants to fully understand the forces that move today's markets, Stocks for the Long Run provides the most complete summary available of historical trends that will help you develop a sound and profitable long-term portfolio. PRAISE FOR STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN: “Jeremy Siegel is one of the great ones.” —JIM CRAMER, CNBC’s Mad Money “[Jeremy Siegel’s] contributions to finance and investing are of such significance as to change the direction of the profession.” —THE FINANCIAL ANALYST INSTITUTE “A simply great book.” —FORBES “One of the top ten business books of the year.” —BUSINESSWEEK “Should command a central place on the desk of any ‘amateur’ investor or beginning professional.” —BARRON’S “Siegel’s case for stocks is unbridled and compelling.” —USA TODAY “A clearly written, neatly organized, highly persuasive exposition that lifts the veil of mystery from investing.” —JOHN C. BOGLE, founder and former Chairman, The Vanguard Group
This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way. Offering a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade it fills the wide gap between the high demand for such models by banks, international organizations, and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates.
This paper studies the effects of public expenditure reallocations on long-run growth. To do this, we assemble a new dataset based on the IMF’s GFS yearbook for the period 1970-2010 and 56 countries (14 low-, 16 medium-, and 26 high-income countries). Using dynamic panel GMM estimators, we find that a reallocation involving a rise in education spending has a positive and statistically robust effect on growth, when the compensating factor remains unspecified or when this is associated with an offsetting reduction in social protection spending. We also find that public capital spending relative to current spending appears to be associated with higher growth, yet results are non-robust in this latter case.
This paper addresses whether parallel market exchange rates in Africa behave in the long run in a manner consistent with the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. A recent econometric method, the panel co-integration test, enables us to examine the long-run PPP hypothesis by pooling the time-series data of several countries. This approach is particularly useful when analyzing African countries, which often do not have long time series. Using pooled data for 16 African countries, the study concludes that the behavior of parallel market exchange rates in Africa is consistent with the long-run PPP hypothesis.
The must-read summary of Danny Miller and Isabelle Le-Breton-Miller's book: "Managing for the Long Run: Lessons in Competitive Advantage from Great Family Businesses". This complete summary of the ideas from Danny Miller and Isabelle Le-Breton-Miller's book "Managing for the Long Run" shows how in every systematic study, Family Controlled Businesses (FCBs) have been shown to outperform public companies in terms of revenue growth, market valuation increases, return on assets, return on equity and other factors. However, this is not the result of some kind of magic formula: every company can emulate the FCB strategies and characteristics. In their book, the authors reveal the secrets behind the success of these companies, known as the four Cs: command, continuity, community and connections. This summary explains each of these features and how you can implement them into your own business. Added-value of this summary: • Save time • Understand key concepts • Expand your knowledge To learn more, read "Managing for the Long Run" and find out how you can learn from the best family businesses and follow their strategies for success.
This paper examines the long-run relationship between consumer price index industrial workers (CPI-IW) inflation and GDP growth in India. We collect data on a sample of 14 Indian states over the period 1989–2013, and use the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CSDL) approach of Chudik et al. (2013) as well as the standard panel ARDL method for estimation—to account for cross-state heterogeneity and dependence, dynamics and feedback effects. Our findings suggest that, on average, there is a negative long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth in India. We also find statistically-significant inflation-growth threshold effects in the case of states with persistently-elevated inflation rates of above 5.5 percent. This suggest the need for the Reserve Bank of India to balance the short-term growthinflation trade-off, in light of the long-term negative effects on growth of persistently-high inflation.
We analyze determinants of sovereign bond yields in 22 advanced economies over the 1980-2010 period using panel cointegration techniques. The application of cointegration methodology allows distinguishing between long-run (debt-to-GDP ratio, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-term interest rates, etc.) determinants of sovereign borrowing costs. We find that in the long-run, government bond yields increase by about 2 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in government debt-to-GDP ratio and by about 45 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in potential growth rate. In the short-run, sovereign bond yields deviate from the level determined by the long-run fundamentals, but about half of the deviation adjusts in one year. When considering the impact of the global financial crisis on sovereign borrowing costs in euro area countries, the estimations suggest that spreads against Germany in some European periphery countries exceeded the level determined by fundamentals in the aftermath of the crisis, while some North European countries have benefited from “safe haven” flows.